Russian payment issues slow Uzbekistan’s export logistics in Q1

In the first quarter of 2025, the number of cargo shipment requests rose by 39%, while average freight rates increased by 10%. The main driver of this growth was the Russian route, which remains the most common — up 34% in the number of orders and 8% in average prices. There was also a notable rise in demand for shipments to Belarus.

However, compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, the number of requests fell by 30%, and prices declined by 15%. Analysts noted that this drop is only partially due to the seasonal downturn following the pre–New Year shipping surge.

In contrast, import freight flows were more stable: year-on-year, demand increased by 4% with average price growth of 2%. Compared to Q4 2024, both the number of orders (-13%) and prices (-4%) declined, also attributed to seasonal trends.

A sharp year-on-year increase was observed in domestic transport orders — up 83% — which analysts linked to growing interest in logistics services and automation tools. However, compared to the October–December period, demand remained virtually unchanged.

Farid Vakhidov, head of ATI.SU’s Uzbekistan office, described the current market situation as a “new equilibrium.” He noted that further development of trade with Russian companies is hindered by persistent payment issues, which worsened in 2024.

"Nevertheless, Uzbekistan has strong potential to boost exports — in the first two months of 2025, the country’s industrial production grew by 6%, and foreign trade turnover increased by 10%," Vakhidov added.

According to ATI.SU data, the volume of export freight shipments from Uzbekistan had been increasing for three consecutive quarters in 2024. In the October–December period, volumes more than doubled compared to the same quarter of the previous year.